The Bucks or the Sixers in the Finals this Year?
Photo Credit: USA Today
With Kawhi Leonard leaving the Eastern Conference and heading out west, many wondered which team would take the Raptors place in the NBA Finals. The two teams that immediately come to mind are the Bucks and Sixers, and rightfully so. The Bucks had a 2–0 lead on the Raptors in the Eastern Conference Finals last year, before Leonard realized he’s not having none of that. The Sixers were a gust of wind away from sending Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Semis into overtime against the Raptors when Leonard’s shot over Joel Embiid hit the rim four times and went in. It only makes sense that these two teams would battle it out to crown the new king of the East.
I believe that the Bucks will end up in the NBA Finals this year. While I do believe that the Bucks are a well-rounded team, the main reason I believe that they will get to the Finals is Ben Simmons not having a jump shot. It has been proven that in the playoffs star players without a jump shot can get exposed by well ran defense schemes.
According to Basketball-Reference.com Simmons, last year during the regular season averaged about 17 points, 9 rebounds, 8 assists per game, he shot 56 percent from the field, 60 percent from the free-throw line, on about 12 field goal attempts per game. In the playoffs, his numbers took a considerable dive. Once the Raptors forced Simmons to shoot, the Sixers offense looked out of sorts occasionally and stagnant. This ultimately lead to the Sixers’ demise. Against the Raptors, he averaged about 11.5 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists per game, along with 56 percent from the free-throw line, 60 percent from the field, on about 8.5 field goal attempts per game.
Simmons’ field goal percentage actually went up during this series only because he became a lot more selective in the shots he took. When you’re taking fewer shots the field goal percentage should go up because there are simply fewer opportunities to miss. His assists numbers dropped considerably because they had him in a much less demanding role when it came to ball handling. In the playoffs, it is easy to guard a point guard without a jump shot in the half-court set because players will drop back from guarding them and help on the shooters surrounding him. The fact that coaches can devise a scheme to check Simmons for 7 straight games instead of a game at a time doesn’t bode well for him either. Simmons becomes virtually a non-factor in the half-court with decent coaching. The coach of the Sixers even experimented with having Simmons near the block on some plays, as a sort of a drive and kick option. That won’t work for them because Simmons is by far their best playmaker and they need him up top trying to get his teammates open looks.
The Sixers will never be a legitimate title threat until Simmons gets a jump shot. A jump shot will open so many doors for him. It will force defenses to play him closer, which will open up the floor for his teammates providing them with better looks. Having a reliable jump shot will actually give him more space to live in the paint because his defender won’t have the advantage of staying back there all game. It will force coaches to come up with different schemes to stop him because other than his shooting ability, he is unstoppable. The list goes on and on, but the Sixers and Simmons will never reach their full potential until he gets a jump shot.
Now I know what a lot of you guys are thinking. “If the Sixers don’t get to the Finals because Simmons doesn’t have a jump shot, how will the Bucks make it with Giannis Antetokounmpo as their star?” The biggest difference is the Greek Freak plays with other playmakers that can give him the ball close to the basket. The Greek Freak plays a lot of Power Forward which gives him a lot more opportunities to score closer to the basket. Simmons is depended on to create for others, while Antetokounmpo wouldn’t be called upon as much.
Another edge that the Greek Freak has over Simmons is the fact that he actually WILL shoot. If the defense knows you’re not confident enough to put up a foul-line jumper as a point guard, it puts your team at too much of a disadvantage. Antetokounmpo will at least attempt, he’ll even attempt 3 pointers if they leave him wide open. Knowing that he will at least shoot puts the defense on their toes a bit more.
Antetokounmpo during the regular season last year averaged about 28 points, 12.5 boards, and 6 assists per game. He also shot 58 percent from the field on 17.3 attempts a game, 26 percent from 3 on about 3 attempts a game, and shot 73 percent from the free-throw line. This stat line won him the league’s Most Valuable Player, and this stat line didn’t fall off dramatically against the Raptors in the playoffs.
The Greek Freak against the Raptors last year in the playoffs averaged about 23 points, 13.5 rebounds, and 5.5 assists per game. He also shot 33 percent from 3 on 3.5 attempts, 45 percent from the field on 17.5 attempts per game, and shot 58 percent from the free-throw line. Defenses know that he isn’t a great shooter, but they also know that they can’t leave him wide open. I know that his increased field goal attempts and points in comparison to Simmons may be due to the fact that he is getting a lot more looks closer to the basket, but I mentioned that earlier. The Bucks don’t depend on the Greek Freak for playmaking the way that the Sixers do for Simmons. Antetokounmpo not having a jump shot isn’t nearly as costly as it is for Simmons.
His field goal percentage did drop considerably, but he stayed aggressive which is what star players are supposed to do. I realize that Simmons isn’t the best player on his team like Antetokounmpo is, but I do believe that he is the most important player for the Sixers to get to the Finals and maximize their potential. Simmons shied away and couldn’t adjust once they forced him to shoot a jump shot, which is something that he refused to do. After a long summer of NBA fans watching videos of Simmons shooting nothing but jump shots, it seems as though those tactics have not followed him into this current season. Antetokounmpo seems hungrier, and more willing to adjust to what the defense gives him. I believe he will make the necessary adjustments to beat the Sixers in 7 games come playoff time.
